Market Outlook improvement and Shock Impact Simulation Model development
Recent increases in global food prices and increased frequency of natural disasters
have had adverse effects on national and household food security in different parts of
the world. Shocks arise from rapid changes in economic, political, market or climatic
conditions, affecting different population groups differently. In addition, the volatility
in global food prices since 2008 has been identified as major factor to affect agricultural
production/investment and undernourishment. Domestic and trade policies are also major
factors affecting food security at global, national, and household levels.
Market Outlook Improvement and Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod)
Under the overall objective of the Pakistan Agricultural information System project,
the market outlook improvement and Shock Impact Simulation Model will introduce
Pakistan's provincial authorities (Punjab and Sindh) in improving domestic and
international market monitoring and outlook.
Market Outlook Improvement
Provincial level commodity specific food balance sheets together with market and policy
related database will form the basis for conducting trend analysis to monitor the food
situation in the provinces and inform the decision-making process on issues such as
cereal surpluses and/or gaps that would help decisions in grain procurement needs and
public food stock management.
Assistance and training will be provided to provincial authorities to keep track of
agricultural commodities trade policies, market management decisions, production support
and food assistance/ food subsidies policies by using FAO's Global Information and Early
Warning System (GIEWS), which is an online price database (national, including Pakistan)
and analysis tool supporting the monitoring of policy decisions in response to food price
Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod)
SISMod was originally developed and tested in countries such as Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh
and Tajikistan by FAO and WFP to help understand and contextualise the impact of various types
of shocks on outcomes such as market supplies and demand, household income and food gaps, with
an overall analysis of the impact on vulnerable groups.
The model combines data from the World Bank, FAO, WFP and national sources on key household,
livelihood, economic, market and production variables that can be used to model the effects
of six different shock factors (agricultural production, agricultural inputs/costs, commodity
retail/wholesale prices, wage rate, remittances and transfers, and macro-economic factors and
trade policies) on livelihoods and food security outcomes.
SISmod Analysis Steps
Crop production and market price data are crucial to SISMod. They are the shock conductors
which directly affect income and expenditure, hence food security of rural agricultural
households. The combination of crop production and price monitoring system and SISMod allow
timely simulation on shocked households' income and expenditure, and through demand/supply/price
transmission elasticity derived from household survey data, quantifying households' food
expenditure and consumption during shocks.
The SIS model uses the same approach as the Agricultural Household Models (AHM) and is based
on a number of modules (e.g., market monitoring, crop production monitoring, income generation,
household budget allocation) that track changes in shock factors, and utilizes past patterns
(e.g., linked to GIEWS) or forecasts determined by a partial equilibrium model or short-term
price analysis. The model allows use of different thresholds based on policy intervention
objectives, and can simulate impacts for various grouping factors (e.g., gender, geographical
A user-friendly, Excel/Access based tool for shock impact analysis and monitoring will be
implemented for Punjab and Sindh to combine data sets from the, FAO, WFP, the World Bank and
other national sources. SISMod can be used for estimating ex-ante, current, and ex-post shock
impacts to support intervention decisions and for wider policy and planning.
Specific activities under this task
1) Market Outlook Improv
- Develop provincial/district level commodity specific balance sheets for
major commodities in Punjab and Sindh;
- Trend analysis of major commodity prices;
- Training on market monitoring;
- Training in the use of the GIEWS price tool for analysis of domestic
price movements vis-à-vis international prices to assist food market and trade policies;
- Training in improving CRS's crop reports by integrating the outputs of
SIS_Mod and FAO's GIEWS.
2) Provincial Shock Impact Simulation Model and Tool development for Punjab and Sindh
- Module to monitor agricultural production, linking climate factors,
such as rainfall, NDVI, floods/droughts, with local seasonal production;
- Module to monitor market/economic factors, such as prices food balances,
employment/ remittance, wage rate, etc;
- Module to project the population;
- Food security baseline for vulnerable groups;
- Econometric shock simulation model to forecast possible food gaps and
The activities related to the "Market Outlook improvement and Shock Impact
Simulation Model development" task, including extensive onsite training and local
capacity development, are going to be completed before end of 2014.
Sep 2, 2015 - A new amendment (no. 3) was signed by USDA and FAO to formalize a no-cost
extension of the project GCP/PAK/125/USA from Oct 1, 2015 to Sep 30, 2016.
Aug 8, 2016.
E-bulletin 11, Apr-Jun 2016.
Aug 5, 2016.
E-learning courses on agriculture monitoring and statistics.
Aug 5, 2016.
FAO's ECONET approach and land cover change in Pakistan.
Aug 5, 2016.
Training on Carbon Sequestration.
Aug 5, 2016.
CRS Punjab bulletins Apr 2016.
Apr 22, 2016.
Cotton Production & Analytics.
Mar 1, 2016.
Testing Sentinel-2 images for crop monitoring in Pakistan.
Feb 20, 2016.
Crop Information Portal training.
Jan 20, 2016.
Sugarcane Production & Analytics.
Jan 20, 2016.
Training on REDD+ Technology for Forest Department Officers of Punjab.
Oct 29, 2014.
Agriculture Information System project: roll-out workshop.
Aug 13, 2015.
RS/GIS Training in Forest Management, Lahore, 4-8 May 2015.
FAO Pakistan website
Forum: "Pakistan Agriculture Sector". >>>>
SUPARCO, the National Space Agency of Pakistan
Government of Sindh: Agriculture Department
Agri Punjab >>>>