Agri Punjab, Agriculture Department Agri Sindh, Agriculture Department University of Maryland Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission U.S. Department of Agriculture Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
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Market Outlook improvement and Shock Impact Simulation Model development

Rationale
sismod market - www.pakistantoday.com.pk Recent increases in global food prices and increased frequency of natural disasters have had adverse effects on national and household food security in different parts of the world. Shocks arise from rapid changes in economic, political, market or climatic conditions, affecting different population groups differently. In addition, the volatility in global food prices since 2008 has been identified as major factor to affect agricultural production/investment and undernourishment. Domestic and trade policies are also major factors affecting food security at global, national, and household levels.

Market Outlook Improvement and Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod)
Under the overall objective of the Pakistan Agricultural information System project, the market outlook improvement and Shock Impact Simulation Model will introduce Pakistan's provincial authorities (Punjab and Sindh) in improving domestic and international market monitoring and outlook.

Market Outlook Improvement
Provincial level commodity specific food balance sheets together with market and policy related database will form the basis for conducting trend analysis to monitor the food situation in the provinces and inform the decision-making process on issues such as cereal surpluses and/or gaps that would help decisions in grain procurement needs and public food stock management.

Assistance and training will be provided to provincial authorities to keep track of agricultural commodities trade policies, market management decisions, production support and food assistance/ food subsidies policies by using FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), which is an online price database (national, including Pakistan) and analysis tool supporting the monitoring of policy decisions in response to food price crisis.

Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod)
SISMod was originally developed and tested in countries such as Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Tajikistan by FAO and WFP to help understand and contextualise the impact of various types of shocks on outcomes such as market supplies and demand, household income and food gaps, with an overall analysis of the impact on vulnerable groups.

The model combines data from the World Bank, FAO, WFP and national sources on key household, livelihood, economic, market and production variables that can be used to model the effects of six different shock factors (agricultural production, agricultural inputs/costs, commodity retail/wholesale prices, wage rate, remittances and transfers, and macro-economic factors and trade policies) on livelihoods and food security outcomes.

sismod flow chart
SISmod Structure
sismod analysis steps
SISmod Analysis Steps

Crop production and market price data are crucial to SISMod. They are the shock conductors which directly affect income and expenditure, hence food security of rural agricultural households. The combination of crop production and price monitoring system and SISMod allow timely simulation on shocked households' income and expenditure, and through demand/supply/price transmission elasticity derived from household survey data, quantifying households' food expenditure and consumption during shocks.

The SIS model uses the same approach as the Agricultural Household Models (AHM) and is based on a number of modules (e.g., market monitoring, crop production monitoring, income generation, household budget allocation) that track changes in shock factors, and utilizes past patterns (e.g., linked to GIEWS) or forecasts determined by a partial equilibrium model or short-term price analysis. The model allows use of different thresholds based on policy intervention objectives, and can simulate impacts for various grouping factors (e.g., gender, geographical area, small-holders).

A user-friendly, Excel/Access based tool for shock impact analysis and monitoring will be implemented for Punjab and Sindh to combine data sets from the, FAO, WFP, the World Bank and other national sources. SISMod can be used for estimating ex-ante, current, and ex-post shock impacts to support intervention decisions and for wider policy and planning.

Specific activities under this task
1) Market Outlook Improv

  • Develop provincial/district level commodity specific balance sheets for major commodities in Punjab and Sindh;
  • Trend analysis of major commodity prices;
  • Training on market monitoring;
  • Training in the use of the GIEWS price tool for analysis of domestic price movements vis--vis international prices to assist food market and trade policies;
  • Training in improving CRS's crop reports by integrating the outputs of SIS_Mod and FAO's GIEWS.

2) Provincial Shock Impact Simulation Model and Tool development for Punjab and Sindh

  • Module to monitor agricultural production, linking climate factors, such as rainfall, NDVI, floods/droughts, with local seasonal production;
  • Module to monitor market/economic factors, such as prices food balances, employment/ remittance, wage rate, etc;
  • Module to project the population;
  • Food security baseline for vulnerable groups;
  • Econometric shock simulation model to forecast possible food gaps and assistance needs.

The activities related to the "Market Outlook improvement and Shock Impact Simulation Model development" task, including extensive onsite training and local capacity development, are going to be completed before end of 2014.

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Sep 2, 2015 - A new amendment (no. 3) was signed by USDA and FAO to formalize a no-cost extension of the project GCP/PAK/125/USA from Oct 1, 2015 to Sep 30, 2016.


  recent updates

Aug 8, 2016. E-bulletin 11, Apr-Jun 2016.


Aug 5, 2016. E-learning courses on agriculture monitoring and statistics.


Aug 5, 2016. FAO's ECONET approach and land cover change in Pakistan.


Aug 5, 2016. Training on Carbon Sequestration.


Aug 5, 2016. CRS Punjab bulletins Apr 2016.


Apr 22, 2016. Cotton Production & Analytics.


Mar 1, 2016. Testing Sentinel-2 images for crop monitoring in Pakistan.


Feb 20, 2016. Crop Information Portal training.


Jan 20, 2016. Sugarcane Production & Analytics.


Jan 20, 2016. Training on REDD+ Technology for Forest Department Officers of Punjab.


Oct 29, 2014. Agriculture Information System project: roll-out workshop.


Aug 13, 2015. RS/GIS Training in Forest Management, Lahore, 4-8 May 2015.


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Forum: "Pakistan Agriculture Sector". >>>>

 

SUPARCO, the National Space Agency of Pakistan >>>>

 

Government of Sindh: Agriculture Department >>>>

 

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