Agri Punjab, Agriculture Department Agri Sindh, Agriculture Department University of Maryland Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission U.S. Department of Agriculture Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
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Market Outlook improvement using Commodity balance sheet and Shock Impact Simulation Model for Pakistan

Background
sismod market - www.pakistantoday.com.pk Under the overall objective of the ongoing project, the FAO has taken initiative to assist in introducing and training the provincial authorities to improve market monitoring and outlook.

FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) has developed a database of basic food prices and an online food price data analysis tool as part of the Initiative on Soaring Food Prices (ISFP). GIEWS has continued to expand the country coverage, including Pakistan, and improve the system to support policy decisions in response to the food price crisis. In this regard certain tools have been developed for situation analysis to assist policy makers including CBS and SISMod.

Commodity Balance Sheet (CBS)
The Food Balance Sheet (Commodity Balance Sheet - CBS) is a tool for analyzing the overall food supply situation and estimating import requirements of a country or region. It helps to:

  • Compare requirements with availability to obtain an estimate of the deficit or surplus food.
  • Assess food security (FS) particularly suited to the situation of low income food deficit countries (LIFDC).
  • Offer an objective methodology for assessing overall food security (FS) based on quantifiable facts.
  • Enable aggregations of different food commodities.
  • Enable comparisons to be made across countries and regions.

A food balance sheet presents a comprehensive picture of the pattern of a country's food supply during a specified reference period. The food balance sheet shows for each food item especially grain foods which are primary commodities availability for human consumption and corresponds to the sources of supply and its utilization. The total quantity of food stuffs produced in a country added to the total quantity imported and adjusted to any change in stocks that may have occurred since the beginning of the reference period gives the supply available during that period.

On the utilization side a distinction is made between the quantities exported, fed to livestock and used for seed losses during storage and transportation, and food supplies available for human consumption. The per capita supply of each such food item available for human consumption is then obtained by dividing the respective quantity by the related data on the population actually partaking in it. Data on per capita food supplies are expressed in terms of quantity and by applying appropriate food composition factors for all primary and processed products also in terms of dietary energy value, protein and fat content.

cereal balance sheet
Pakistan Cereal Balance Sheet 2013-2014

Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMOD) Development
The FAO/WFP SISMod is an economic modelling system that allows timely quantitative assessment on the impacts of various types of shocks on households' incomes and food security in developing countries. It can be used for estimating future, current and ex-post shock impacts.

SISMod provides estimates of the food gaps and needs by livelihood and income groups, as well as by geographical areas. It identifies and profiles who and what areas are the most affected by shocks and to what extent.

A user-friendly, Excel/Access based tool for shock impact analysis and monitoring is being implemented for Punjab and Sindh to combine data sets from FAO, WFP, World Bank and other national sources. The model combines data about key household, livelihood, economic, market and production variables that can be used to model the effects of six different shock factors (agricultural production, agricultural inputs/costs, commodity retail/wholesale prices, wage rate, remittances, transfers and macro-economic factors and trade policies) on livelihoods and food security outcomes.

The model uses the same approach as the Agricultural Household Models (AHM) and is based on a number of modules (e.g., market monitoring, crop production monitoring, income generation, household budget allocation) that track changes in shock factors and utilizes past patterns (e.g., linked to GIEWS) or forecasts determined by a partial equilibrium model or short-term price analysis. The model allows use of different thresholds based on policy intervention objectives and can simulate impacts for various grouping factors (e.g., gender, geographical area, small-holders).

SISMod attempts to improve the food security system by supporting the policy makers through various analytical tools in respect to changing weather situations, crop production, market mechanisms and others.

sismod home page
Screen shot of SISMod
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  ANNOUNCEMENT

Sep 2, 2015 - A new amendment (no. 3) was signed by USDA and FAO to formalize a no-cost extension of the project GCP/PAK/125/USA from Oct 1, 2015 to Sep 30, 2016.


  recent updates

Aug 8, 2016. E-bulletin 11, Apr-Jun 2016.


Aug 5, 2016. E-learning courses on agriculture monitoring and statistics.


Aug 5, 2016. FAO's ECONET approach and land cover change in Pakistan.


Aug 5, 2016. Training on Carbon Sequestration.


Aug 5, 2016. CRS Punjab bulletins Apr 2016.


Apr 22, 2016. Cotton Production & Analytics.


Mar 1, 2016. Testing Sentinel-2 images for crop monitoring in Pakistan.


Feb 20, 2016. Crop Information Portal training.


Jan 20, 2016. Sugarcane Production & Analytics.


Jan 20, 2016. Training on REDD+ Technology for Forest Department Officers of Punjab.


Oct 29, 2014. Agriculture Information System project: roll-out workshop.


Aug 13, 2015. RS/GIS Training in Forest Management, Lahore, 4-8 May 2015.


FAO Pakistan website >>>>

 

Forum: "Pakistan Agriculture Sector". >>>>

 

SUPARCO, the National Space Agency of Pakistan >>>>

 

Government of Sindh: Agriculture Department >>>>

 

Agri Punjab >>>>

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