Market Outlook improvement using Commodity balance sheet and Shock Impact Simulation Model for Pakistan
Under the overall objective of the ongoing project, the FAO has taken initiative to assist in
introducing and training the provincial authorities to improve market monitoring and outlook.
FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) has developed a database of basic
food prices and an online food price data analysis tool as part of the Initiative on Soaring
Food Prices (ISFP). GIEWS has continued to expand the country coverage, including Pakistan, and
improve the system to support policy decisions in response to the food price crisis. In this
regard certain tools have been developed for situation analysis to assist policy makers including
CBS and SISMod.
Commodity Balance Sheet (CBS)
The Food Balance Sheet (Commodity Balance Sheet - CBS) is a tool for analyzing the overall food
supply situation and estimating import requirements of a country or region. It helps to:
- Compare requirements with availability to obtain an estimate of the deficit or surplus
- Assess food security (FS) particularly suited to the situation of low income food deficit
- Offer an objective methodology for assessing overall food security (FS) based on
- Enable aggregations of different food commodities.
- Enable comparisons to be made across countries and regions.
A food balance sheet presents a comprehensive picture of the pattern of a country's food supply
during a specified reference period. The food balance sheet shows for each food item especially
grain foods which are primary commodities availability for human consumption and corresponds to
the sources of supply and its utilization. The total quantity of food stuffs produced in a country
added to the total quantity imported and adjusted to any change in stocks that may have occurred
since the beginning of the reference period gives the supply available during that period.
On the utilization side a distinction is made between the quantities exported, fed to livestock
and used for seed losses during storage and transportation, and food supplies available for human
consumption. The per capita supply of each such food item available for human consumption is then
obtained by dividing the respective quantity by the related data on the population actually partaking
in it. Data on per capita food supplies are expressed in terms of quantity and by applying appropriate
food composition factors for all primary and processed products also in terms of dietary energy value,
protein and fat content.
Pakistan Cereal Balance Sheet 2013-2014
Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMOD) Development
The FAO/WFP SISMod is an economic modelling system that allows timely
quantitative assessment on the impacts of various types of shocks on households' incomes and food
security in developing countries. It can be used for estimating future, current and ex-post shock
SISMod provides estimates of the food gaps and needs by livelihood and income groups, as well as
by geographical areas. It identifies and profiles who and what areas are the most affected by
shocks and to what extent.
A user-friendly, Excel/Access based tool for shock impact analysis and monitoring is being
implemented for Punjab and Sindh to combine data sets from FAO, WFP, World Bank and other
national sources. The model combines data about key household, livelihood, economic, market
and production variables that can be used to model the effects of six different shock factors
(agricultural production, agricultural inputs/costs, commodity retail/wholesale prices, wage
rate, remittances, transfers and macro-economic factors and trade policies) on livelihoods and
food security outcomes.
The model uses the same approach as the Agricultural Household Models (AHM) and is based on a
number of modules (e.g., market monitoring, crop production monitoring, income generation,
household budget allocation) that track changes in shock factors and utilizes past patterns
(e.g., linked to GIEWS) or forecasts determined by a partial equilibrium model or short-term
price analysis. The model allows use of different thresholds based on policy intervention
objectives and can simulate impacts for various grouping factors (e.g., gender, geographical
SISMod attempts to improve the food security system by supporting the policy makers through
various analytical tools in respect to changing weather situations, crop production, market
mechanisms and others.
Screen shot of SISMod
Sep 2, 2015 - A new amendment (no. 3) was signed by USDA and FAO to formalize a no-cost
extension of the project GCP/PAK/125/USA from Oct 1, 2015 to Sep 30, 2016.
Aug 8, 2016.
E-bulletin 11, Apr-Jun 2016.
Aug 5, 2016.
E-learning courses on agriculture monitoring and statistics.
Aug 5, 2016.
FAO's ECONET approach and land cover change in Pakistan.
Aug 5, 2016.
Training on Carbon Sequestration.
Aug 5, 2016.
CRS Punjab bulletins Apr 2016.
Apr 22, 2016.
Cotton Production & Analytics.
Mar 1, 2016.
Testing Sentinel-2 images for crop monitoring in Pakistan.
Feb 20, 2016.
Crop Information Portal training.
Jan 20, 2016.
Sugarcane Production & Analytics.
Jan 20, 2016.
Training on REDD+ Technology for Forest Department Officers of Punjab.
Oct 29, 2014.
Agriculture Information System project: roll-out workshop.
Aug 13, 2015.
RS/GIS Training in Forest Management, Lahore, 4-8 May 2015.
FAO Pakistan website
Forum: "Pakistan Agriculture Sector". >>>>
SUPARCO, the National Space Agency of Pakistan
Government of Sindh: Agriculture Department
Agri Punjab >>>>