Agri Punjab, Agriculture Department Agri Sindh, Agriculture Department University of Maryland Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission U.S. Department of Agriculture Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
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Training courses

Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod) and Commodity Balance Sheet for market Monitoring and Food Security Analysis.

10-14 November, 2014. Islamabad at SUPARCO

Background
Under the overall objective of the ongoing project of improving the capacity of Pakistan's provincial authorities in effectively handling agricultural information systems, FAO in coordination with SUPARCO and USDA, has conducted a five day training on knowledge and tools to monitor production and market shocks, project commodity supply/demand, estimate their impacts on household income and expenditure and food consumption. Also, on the assessment of food gaps and needs for assistance at national, provincial and sub-provincial levels. This training course is part of the capacity development initiatives included in the Agriculture Information System project, in particular the training program in Satellite Remote Sensing Applied to Agricultural Statistics and Market Monitoring.

Market Outlook Improvement
market outlook training Provincial level commodity specific food balance sheets together with market and policy related database form the basis for conducting trend analysis to monitor the food situation in the provinces and inform the decision-making process on issues such as cereal surpluses and/or gaps that would help decisions in grain procurement needs and public food stock management. Assistance and training is provided to provincial authorities to keep track of agricultural commodities trade policies, market management decisions, production support and food assistance/ food subsidies policies by using FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), which is an online price database (national, including Pakistan) and analysis tool supporting the monitoring of policy decisions in response to food price crisis.

Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod)
SISMod model combines data from the World Bank, FAO, WFP and national sources on key household, livelihood, economic, market and production variables to estimate the effects of six different shock factors (agricultural production, agricultural inputs/costs, commodity retail/wholesale prices, wage rate, remittances and transfers, and macro-economic factors and trade policies) on livelihoods and food security outcomes.

Course goal
By integrating the monitoring of shock factors (market, economic, climatic), developing household food security profiles and impact simulation models on household food security, the goal of this training is to provide knowledge and tools to monitor climate and market/economics shocks and agricultural production, project commodity supply/demand; and estimate the impacts on household income and expenditure, food consumption, food gap and needs for assistance. Specifically:

1. Commodity Balance Sheet

  • To understand the nature and construction of Commodity Balance Sheets
  • To discuss role of different elements that make up the FBS, what values are appropriate in the context of Pakistan
  • To conduct some hands-on training on preparing current national and Provincial (Punjab and Sindh)staple food balances
  • Use of FBS in food security, early warning, planning and policy making
  • identify food security gaps, nutritional problem areas, import requirements and import planning
  • Develop provincial/district level commodity specific balance sheets for major commodities in Punjab and Sindh
  • To discuss the key indicators and roles for market monitor and government planning's

2. Shock Impact Simulation Model

  • Shocks impacting food security
  • Monitor market/economic factors, such as prices food balances, employment/ remittance, wage rate, etc.
  • Module to project the population
  • Food security baseline for vulnerable groups
  • Econometric shock simulation model to forecast possible food gaps and assistance needs
  • Trend analysis of major commodity prices
  • Improving CRS's crop reports by integrating the outputs of SISMod and FAO's GIEWS

Course Outline and Target participants
This training course provides attendees with basic knowledge and application of the Shock Impact Simulation Model and commodity balance sheets. It also focuses on how the technology will be exploited for crop and market monitoring and food security analysis in national and provincial levels. Target participants are agricultural statisticians, managers of agricultural statistics programs, technical staffs/ professionals working in market information and food security early warning system, policy analysts from national institutions, and NGOs and International Organizations.

Instructors / Coordinator
The training team comprised two instructors from the SISMod project team: Dr. Cheng Fang (FAO) and Ms. Chloe Wong (WFP). SUPARCO provided training facility and logistic arrangement. Dr Amjad Ali, General Manager of SUPARCO, provided overall coordination for the training.

Participants
19 experts from different provincial and federal organizations attended the training, including representatives from SUPARCO, Ministry of National Food Security and Research, Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Provincial Crop Reporting Services (Punjab, Sindh, KPK and Baluchistan), Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Sindh Agricultural University Tandojam and PMAS-Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi. Here is the detailed list:

NoNAME DESIGNATION ORGANIZATION
1Mr. Muhammad FarooqStatistical officerCRS PUNJAB
2Mr. Adnan Ahmad SheikhStatistical officerCRS SINDH
3Mr. Abdur RahmanResearch Officer (GIS)CRS KPK
4Mr. Muhammad Musharaf MaqboolAssistance DirectorCRS Balochistan, Quetta
5Dr. Umer SaeedResearch officerAgriculture University Faisalabad
6Dr. Abdul Ghafoor SiyalAssociate ProfessorSindh Agriculture University, Tando Jam
7Ms. Momana ShaheenSection officerMinistry of National Food Security & Research, Pakistan Secretarial
8Dr. Irfan Ahmad BaigAssociate ProfessorPMAS-Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi
9Mr. Amjid JavaidDeputy Agricultural Censes CommissionerPakistan Bureau of Statistics, Lahore
10Mr. Ibrar ul Hassan AkhtarManagerSUPARCO
11Mr. Majid Masood LodhiManagerSUPARCO
12Mr. Mubashir Ahmad KhanPrincipal Scientific OfficerOil Seeds, NARC Islamabad
13Mr. Hassnain ShahPrincipal Scientific Officer/Program LeaderNARC Islamabad
14Mr. Muhammad IbrahimManagerSUPARCO
15Dr. Muhammad IqbalManagerSUPARCO
16Ms. Sofia IqbalAssistant ManagerSUPARCO
17Mr. Rana Ahmad Faraz IshaqAssistant ManagerSUPARCO
18Dr. Muhammad HanifAdviserSUPARCO
19Dr. Amjad AliGeneral ManagerSUPARCO

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Sep 2, 2015 - A new amendment (no. 3) was signed by USDA and FAO to formalize a no-cost extension of the project GCP/PAK/125/USA from Oct 1, 2015 to Sep 30, 2016.


  recent updates

Aug 8, 2016. E-bulletin 11, Apr-Jun 2016.


Aug 5, 2016. E-learning courses on agriculture monitoring and statistics.


Aug 5, 2016. FAO's ECONET approach and land cover change in Pakistan.


Aug 5, 2016. Training on Carbon Sequestration.


Aug 5, 2016. CRS Punjab bulletins Apr 2016.


Apr 22, 2016. Cotton Production & Analytics.


Mar 1, 2016. Testing Sentinel-2 images for crop monitoring in Pakistan.


Feb 20, 2016. Crop Information Portal training.


Jan 20, 2016. Sugarcane Production & Analytics.


Jan 20, 2016. Training on REDD+ Technology for Forest Department Officers of Punjab.


Oct 29, 2014. Agriculture Information System project: roll-out workshop.


Aug 13, 2015. RS/GIS Training in Forest Management, Lahore, 4-8 May 2015.


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SUPARCO, the National Space Agency of Pakistan >>>>

 

Government of Sindh: Agriculture Department >>>>

 

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