Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod) and Commodity Balance Sheet for
market Monitoring and Food Security Analysis.
10-14 November, 2014. Islamabad at SUPARCO
Under the overall objective of the ongoing project of improving the capacity of
Pakistan's provincial authorities in effectively handling agricultural information systems,
FAO in coordination with SUPARCO and USDA, has conducted a five day training
on knowledge and tools to monitor production and market shocks, project commodity
supply/demand, estimate their impacts on household income and expenditure and food
consumption. Also, on the assessment of food gaps and needs for assistance at national,
provincial and sub-provincial levels. This training course is part of the capacity
development initiatives included in the Agriculture Information System project, in
particular the training program in Satellite Remote Sensing Applied to Agricultural
Statistics and Market Monitoring.
Market Outlook Improvement
Provincial level commodity specific food balance sheets together with market and policy
related database form the basis for conducting trend analysis to monitor the food
situation in the provinces and inform the decision-making process on issues such as
cereal surpluses and/or gaps that would help decisions in grain procurement needs
and public food stock management. Assistance and training is provided to provincial
authorities to keep track of agricultural commodities trade policies, market management
decisions, production support and food assistance/ food subsidies policies by using FAO's
Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), which is an online price database
(national, including Pakistan) and analysis tool supporting the monitoring of policy
decisions in response to food price crisis.
Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod)
SISMod model combines data from the World Bank, FAO, WFP and national sources on key
household, livelihood, economic, market and production variables to estimate the effects
of six different shock factors (agricultural production, agricultural inputs/costs,
commodity retail/wholesale prices, wage rate, remittances and transfers, and macro-economic
factors and trade policies) on livelihoods and food security outcomes.
By integrating the monitoring of shock factors (market, economic, climatic), developing
household food security profiles and impact simulation models on household food security,
the goal of this training is to provide knowledge and tools to monitor climate and market/economics
shocks and agricultural production, project commodity supply/demand; and estimate the impacts
on household income and expenditure, food consumption, food gap and needs for assistance. Specifically:
1. Commodity Balance Sheet
- To understand the nature and construction of Commodity Balance Sheets
- To discuss role of different elements that make up the FBS, what values are appropriate in the context of Pakistan
- To conduct some hands-on training on preparing current national and Provincial (Punjab and Sindh)staple food balances
- Use of FBS in food security, early warning, planning and policy making
- identify food security gaps, nutritional problem areas, import requirements and import planning
- Develop provincial/district level commodity specific balance sheets for major commodities in Punjab and Sindh
- To discuss the key indicators and roles for market monitor and government planning's
2. Shock Impact Simulation Model
- Shocks impacting food security
- Monitor market/economic factors, such as prices food balances, employment/ remittance, wage rate, etc.
- Module to project the population
- Food security baseline for vulnerable groups
- Econometric shock simulation model to forecast possible food gaps and assistance needs
- Trend analysis of major commodity prices
- Improving CRS's crop reports by integrating the outputs of SISMod and FAO's GIEWS
Course Outline and Target participants
This training course provides attendees with basic knowledge and application of the Shock
Impact Simulation Model and commodity balance sheets. It also focuses on how the technology
will be exploited for crop and market monitoring and food security analysis in national and
provincial levels. Target participants are agricultural statisticians, managers of agricultural
statistics programs, technical staffs/ professionals working in market information and food
security early warning system, policy analysts from national institutions, and NGOs and International
Instructors / Coordinator
The training team comprised two instructors from the SISMod project team: Dr. Cheng Fang (FAO)
and Ms. Chloe Wong (WFP). SUPARCO provided training facility and logistic arrangement. Dr Amjad
Ali, General Manager of SUPARCO, provided overall coordination for the training.
19 experts from different provincial and federal organizations attended the training, including
representatives from SUPARCO, Ministry of National Food Security and Research, Pakistan Agricultural
Research Council, Provincial Crop Reporting Services (Punjab, Sindh, KPK and Baluchistan), Pakistan
Bureau of Statistics, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Sindh Agricultural University Tandojam
and PMAS-Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi. Here is the detailed list:
|No||NAME ||DESIGNATION ||ORGANIZATION|
|1||Mr. Muhammad Farooq||Statistical officer||CRS PUNJAB|
|2||Mr. Adnan Ahmad Sheikh||Statistical officer||CRS SINDH|
|3||Mr. Abdur Rahman||Research Officer (GIS)||CRS KPK|
|4||Mr. Muhammad Musharaf Maqbool||Assistance Director||CRS Balochistan, Quetta|
|5||Dr. Umer Saeed||Research officer||Agriculture University Faisalabad|
|6||Dr. Abdul Ghafoor Siyal||Associate Professor||Sindh Agriculture University, Tando Jam|
|7||Ms. Momana Shaheen||Section officer||Ministry of National Food Security & Research, Pakistan Secretarial|
|8||Dr. Irfan Ahmad Baig||Associate Professor||PMAS-Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi|
|9||Mr. Amjid Javaid||Deputy Agricultural Censes Commissioner||Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Lahore|
|10||Mr. Ibrar ul Hassan Akhtar||Manager||SUPARCO|
|11||Mr. Majid Masood Lodhi||Manager||SUPARCO|
|12||Mr. Mubashir Ahmad Khan||Principal Scientific Officer||Oil Seeds, NARC Islamabad|
|13||Mr. Hassnain Shah||Principal Scientific Officer/Program Leader||NARC Islamabad|
|14||Mr. Muhammad Ibrahim||Manager||SUPARCO|
|15||Dr. Muhammad Iqbal||Manager||SUPARCO|
|16||Ms. Sofia Iqbal||Assistant Manager||SUPARCO|
|17||Mr. Rana Ahmad Faraz Ishaq||Assistant Manager||SUPARCO|
|18||Dr. Muhammad Hanif||Adviser||SUPARCO|
|19||Dr. Amjad Ali||General Manager||SUPARCO|
Sep 2, 2015 - A new amendment (no. 3) was signed by USDA and FAO to formalize a no-cost
extension of the project GCP/PAK/125/USA from Oct 1, 2015 to Sep 30, 2016.
Aug 8, 2016.
E-bulletin 11, Apr-Jun 2016.
Aug 5, 2016.
E-learning courses on agriculture monitoring and statistics.
Aug 5, 2016.
FAO's ECONET approach and land cover change in Pakistan.
Aug 5, 2016.
Training on Carbon Sequestration.
Aug 5, 2016.
CRS Punjab bulletins Apr 2016.
Apr 22, 2016.
Cotton Production & Analytics.
Mar 1, 2016.
Testing Sentinel-2 images for crop monitoring in Pakistan.
Feb 20, 2016.
Crop Information Portal training.
Jan 20, 2016.
Sugarcane Production & Analytics.
Jan 20, 2016.
Training on REDD+ Technology for Forest Department Officers of Punjab.
Oct 29, 2014.
Agriculture Information System project: roll-out workshop.
Aug 13, 2015.
RS/GIS Training in Forest Management, Lahore, 4-8 May 2015.
FAO Pakistan website
Forum: "Pakistan Agriculture Sector". >>>>
SUPARCO, the National Space Agency of Pakistan
Government of Sindh: Agriculture Department
Agri Punjab >>>>